Champions League qualification: Who is most likely to win race and how many spots will Premier League teams have?
Liverpool have mathematically qualified for the 2025/26 Champions League and Arsenal are all but certain to follow suit, but which other Premier League sides will join them? The Premier League is guaranteed at least five clubs in next season's Champions League
Tuesday 6 May 2025 13:47, UK
The race for Champions League qualification is more competitive than ever with five Premier League teams guaranteed qualification, but who will make the cut?
The race for the top five is tight, with only four points separating Manchester City in third and Aston Villa in seventh following Villa's 1-0 home win over Fulham on Saturday.
Opta's supercomputer has run the numbers on each team's chances, so who do they expect to get over the line?
Premier League winners Liverpool have already guaranteed Champions League football, while Opta put Arsenal's prospects at 99.9 per cent.
Man City - who have a favourable run-in - now have a 98 per cent chance of making those Champions League spots
Chelsea occupy the fifth and final Champions League qualification spot but have moved level on points with Newcastle following their win over Liverpool on a day when Newcastle drew at Brighton.
Nottingham Forest missed the chance to join them on 63 points after a 1-1 draw at Crystal Palace on Monday Night Football.
Aston Villa's prospects of qualifying for the Champions League are now rated at 16 per cent by Opta's supercomputer with Newcastle's at 76 per cent, Chelsea's at 68 per cent and Forest's at 43 per cent.
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Who plays who in the final weeks?
The run-in sees two games between Champions League hopefuls as Chelsea go to Newcastle on May 11, before Forest host Chelsea on the final day of the season.
And on top of that, there is likely to be a SIXTH Premier League team in the Champions League next season, after Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United convincingly won their Europa League semi-final first legs.
Should Tottenham and Manchester United both reach the final in Bilbao, one of them will directly qualify for the Champions League, despite finishing in the bottom half of the table.
Arsenal's remaining fixtures
May 11: Liverpool vs Arsenal, kick-off 4.30pm
May 18: Arsenal vs Newcastle, kick-off 4.30pm
May 25: Southampton vs Arsenal, kick-off 4pm
Manchester City's remaining fixtures
May 10: Southampton vs Man City, kick-off 4pm
May 20: Man City vs Bournemouth, kick-off 7pm
May 25: Fulham vs Man City, kick-off 4pm
Nottingham Forest's remaining fixtures
May 11: Nottingham Forest vs Leicester, kick-off 2.15pm, live on Sky Sports
May 18: West Ham vs Nottingham Forest, kick-off 2.15pm
May 25: Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea, kick-off 4pm
Newcastle's remaining fixtures
May 11: Newcastle vs Chelsea, kick-off 12pm
May 18: Arsenal vs Newcastle, kick-off 4.30pm
May 25: Newcastle vs Everton, kick-off 4pm
Chelsea's remaining fixtures
May 11: Newcastle vs Chelsea, kick-off 12pm
May 16: Chelsea vs Man Utd, kick-off 8pm
May 25: Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea, kick-off 4pm
Aston Villa's remaining fixtures
May 10: Bournemouth vs Aston Villa, kick-off 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports
May 18: Aston Villa vs Spurs, kick-off 2.15pm
May 25: Man United vs Aston Villa, kick-off 4pm
